The NAACP’s Counterfactual Claim About Racial Inequity in Police Stops

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APA
Agresti, J. D. (2021, May 25). The NAACP’s Counterfactual Claim About Racial Inequity in Police Stops. Retrieved from https://www.justfactsdaily.com/the-naacps-counterfactual-claim-about-racial-inequity-in-police-stops
MLA
Agresti, James D. “The NAACP’s Counterfactual Claim About Racial Inequity in Police Stops.” Just Facts. 25 May 2021. Web. 5 October 2024.<https://www.justfactsdaily.com/the-naacps-counterfactual-claim-about-racial-inequity-in-police-stops>.
Chicago (for footnotes)
James D. Agresti, “The NAACP’s Counterfactual Claim About Racial Inequity in Police Stops.” Just Facts. May 25, 2021. https://www.justfactsdaily.com/the-naacps-counterfactual-claim-about-racial-inequity-in-police-stops.
Chicago (for bibliographies)
Agresti, James D. “The NAACP’s Counterfactual Claim About Racial Inequity in Police Stops.” Just Facts. May 25, 2021. https://www.justfactsdaily.com/the-naacps-counterfactual-claim-about-racial-inequity-in-police-stops.

By James D. Agresti
May 25, 2021

In a recent Newsweek article, senior reporter Jason Lemon alleges there is “significant data showing” that the U.S. is plagued by “systemic racism.” As evidence of this, he claims the “NAACP found that from 2017 to 2020, Black men were five times more likely than white people to be stopped by law enforcement without a valid reason.”

The hyperlink Lemon uses to support that claim leads to another article by Lemon, which links to an earlier article by Lemon, which dead ends with no link or reference to an actual study or data.

A search of the NAACP website revealed a “Criminal Justice Fact Sheet“ that claims: “A Black person is five times more likely to be stopped without just cause than a white person.” The “fact sheet” contains no link or evidence for this claim.

Just Facts emailed the NAACP three weeks ago requesting proof of its statistic and then followed up a day later with a phone call and an email. The NAACP never replied.

This prompted Just Facts to search for a study of unjust police stops, which led to a 2016 paper in the Journal of Social Issues. It contains the results of a survey of undergraduate students in New York City who were asked if they were stopped by police “without a perceived justifiable reason” during the study period of six months.

Contrary to Newsweek and the NAACP’s phantom study, the primary results of this study undercut allegations of police bias. However, the authors of the paper excluded the findings from their overview, and the body of the study is locked behind a $42 paywall. The results—which have never before been reported in public—reveal the following about people of different races and ethnicities who said they were stopped by police without just cause:

  • “The percentages of those individuals who were stopped were comparable to the total sample for most of the groups.”
  • “Latina/os comprised 42.2% of the sample and 41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped.”
  • “Black or African Americans comprised 24.7% of the sample [and] 25.8% reported being stopped.”
  • “Whites comprised 20.2% of the sample and 22.6% were stopped.”
  • “Asian Americans were the only group who had dissimilar percentages, in that, they comprised 11.7% of the sample, but only 6.5% of Asian Americans reported being stopped.”

The authors of the study acknowledge several limitations, including a “somewhat small” non-random sample, “which can be particularly problematic when accounting for between‐group differences.” Another limitation is that the study is based on people’s perceptions and claims, which may or may not be accurate. This is especially relevant given that the paper presents the results of another survey that found “Black participants were more likely than Whites and Latina/os to view police negatively.”

The study accords with the latest available national data on police traffic stops by race and ethnicity. A 2018 report by the U.S. Department of Justice shows that 7.6% of all Hispanic drivers were pulled over by police in 2015, as compared to 8.6% of all white drivers, and 9.8% of all black drivers.

While ignoring the fact that Latinos are pulled over at the lowest rate, many media outlets and activists have cited the higher traffic stop rates of blacks as proof of police discrimination. However, such statistics don’t account for the disparate rates that individuals of different races engage in behaviors that lead to traffic stops, such as speeding, driving with an expired license plate, or operating a vehicle with a broken headlight or blinker.

For example, a study conducted in NJ and published by the academic journal Justice Quarterly found that black drivers were more likely to be pulled over than white drivers, but “police stop rates matched very closely the rates at which drivers” of different races “exceeded the speed limit by 15 mph.”

Like other accusations of systemic racism, these claims of Newsweek and the NAACP about unjust police stops have no demonstrable basis in reality. Moreover, they are undercut by the research of scholars who buried vital results deep within their publications.

False accusations of racism have a range of harmful and even deadly effects, including but not limited to:

  • stoking strife and violence between people of different races.
  • forging victim mentalities, which are associated with weak self-control and less ability to persist in challenging tasks.
  • misidentifying the causes of poverty and other social ills, which can impede their resolution or worsen them.

To help people sort through the rampant and toxic misinformation that pervades the media and virtually every aspect of modern society, Just Facts is launching an initiative called Just Facts Academy. This cutting-edge initiative will equip people with the skills to conduct quality research and separate fact from fiction. If you’d like to be notified when Just Facts Academy is launched and receive one email per week about the genuine facts of public policy issues, enter your email here.

  • May 26, 2021 at 10:06 AM
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    It doesn’t help their cause when THEY LIE!

    Reply
  • May 27, 2021 at 6:21 AM
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    The left is nothing but false accusations of racism against blacks.
    They can’t use actual facts and data because it will always prove them wrong.
    I have looked at every statistic on the black population in reference to crime and police incidents then compare it to other races.
    Using only verifiable FBI and other comparable sources for stats and data and their is in no way any systemic racism towards blacks in America.
    The black population is 13% of the total population yet commits 36.1% of all violent crime in America
    The white population is 60% of the total population and commits 38.7% of all violent crime.
    FBI 2019 Stats for murders in America blacks committed 6,425 at only 13% of the population.
    FBI 2019 Stats for murders in America whites committed 5,068 that’s at 60% of the population
    In 2020 people killed by police officers, consider blacks and whites commit about the same amount of violent crime, putting each race contact with police roughly the same.
    Blacks killed by police in the line of duty 241
    Whites killed by police in the line of duty 457
    Most people killed by the police have a weapon and pose a threat to the police or innocent third parties.
    The number of unarmed people killed by the police is much smaller. In 2019, 15 unarmed black people were shot and killed by on-duty police officers, compared with 25 white people.
    The National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund reported that 210 officers died in 2020, up 58 percent from 2019, when there were 135 on-duty deaths.

    Reply
  • August 10, 2021 at 11:06 AM
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    Thanks for getting the data. But the analysis here is flawed, I think.

    A comparison of a sub-group’s representation in the sampled population and the percentage of that sub-group reporting being stopped is not useful for this purpose.

    The comparison that is needed is between:
    1. The sub-group’s representation in the population at large
    2. The sub-group’s representation in the total of those stopped

    For example, if: The total respondees of all races was 100, and 35 were Latinos. Of the 100 total of all races, 75 reported being stopped without cause. Of that 75, 15 were Latinos.
    The useful comparison then would be:
    1. Latinos were 35% of the total population sampled.
    2. Latinos were 20% of those who reported being stopped.

    The analysis would show that Latinos were stopped at a rate a little less than half their representation in the total population.

    Your comparison would have resulted in:
    1. Latinos were 35% of the total population sampled.
    2. 42% of Latinos reported being stopped.

    Which leads to the erroneous conclusion: Therefore, Latinos were slightly over-represented in those who reported being stopped.

    That is NOT a meaningful comparison, and the conclusion is erroneous.

    Or am I missing something?

    “The percentages of those individuals who were stopped were comparable to the total sample for most of the groups.”
    “Latina/os comprised 42.2% of the sample and 41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped.”
    “Black or African Americans comprised 24.7% of the sample [and] 25.8% reported being stopped.”
    “Whites comprised 20.2% of the sample and 22.6% were stopped.”
    “Asian Americans were the only group who had dissimilar percentages, in that, they comprised 11.7% of the sample, but only 6.5% of Asian Americans reported being stopped.”

    Reply
    • August 10, 2021 at 3:14 PM
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      Thank you for writing. When studies use a nonrandom sample of people (like this study), the informative measure for each subsample is not their portion of the entire population but their portion of the study sample.

      For example, a study of police stops conducted with sample of 95% white subjects could not be logically used to argue that whites are pulled over at a higher rate than people of other races.

      One of the other studies cited in the article, which was published by the U.S. Department of Justice in 2018, uses a nationally representative random sample, and it shows that 7.6% of all Hispanic drivers were pulled over by police in 2015, as compared to 8.6% of all white drivers, and 9.8% of all black drivers.

      Reply
      • August 10, 2021 at 5:53 PM
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        Thanks for your note.

        I’m still not sure that the comparison means anything.

        The abstract of the study you report on has the numbers needed:
        “A total of 61 participants (or 27.8% of the total sample) reported being unfairly stopped by police officers.”

        And you provide the other data needed:

        1. “41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped.”
        2. “Black or African Americans…25.8% reported being stopped.”
        3. Whites… 22.6% were stopped.”
        4. “6.5% of Asian Americans reported being stopped.”

        Analysis: Comparing the percentage of each racial group in the sample with the percentage within each group who were stopped:

        28% of the total sample reported being stopped by police for no good reason, the portion of each racial group that reported the same was:
        1. 42% of Latinos
        2. 26% of Blacks
        3. 23% of Whites
        4. 7% of Asians

        Latinos reported being stopped at greater rate than their representation in the sample. All other groups were stopped less than their proportion in the group.

        https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/josi.12249

        Does that make sense?

        Reply
        • August 10, 2021 at 11:47 PM
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          I see what you’re saying now. The issue is a lack of precision in the wording of the paper. When the authors write that “41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped,” they are saying that 42% of people in the sample who reported being stopped unjustly were Latinos.

          The authors make that clear in this statement in the same paragraph: “The percentages of those individuals who were stopped were comparable to the total sample for most of the groups.”

          Here is the full paragraph:

          “The quantitative data revealed that, in the past 6 months, a little more than one fourth of the sample, or 27.8% (N = 61), reported being stopped by police without a perceived justifiable reason. Of those individuals who were stopped, 37.1% were male and 61.3% were female; 41.9% were Hispanic or Latina/o, 25.8% were Black/African American, 22.6% were White, and 6.5% were Asian. The percentages of those individuals who were stopped were comparable to the total sample for most of the groups. Latina/os comprised 42.2% of the sample and 41.9% of Latina/os reported being stopped; Black or African Americans comprised 24.7% of the sample [and] 25.8% reported being stopped; and Whites comprised 20.2% of the sample and 22.6% were stopped. Asian Americans were the only group who had dissimilar percentages, in that, they comprised 11.7% of the sample, but only 6.5% of Asian Americans reported being stopped.”

          Reply
  • November 8, 2021 at 3:31 PM
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    While the NAACP statement about the amount of excessive traffic stops of blacks seems grossly excessive, there is research that indicates a smaller degree of “over-stopping” of blacks. This comes largely from the Stanford Open Policing Project, which has an immense data set of traffic stops.

    Here is a link to a news article on some findings: https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2020/may/black-drivers-more-likely-to-be-stopped-by-police.html

    Here is a link to the project itself: https://openpolicing.stanford.edu/

    Reply
    • November 30, 2021 at 10:58 AM
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      The NAACP’s statement is about unjustified stops, while the article you linked to is about stops. Big difference, as my article explains.

      Reply

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