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Recent Inflation

During President Trump’s second term, has the rate of inflation been lower, higher, or about the same as the historical average?

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Since 1929, the average annual inflation rate has been 3.2%, while the average rate during Trump’s second term has been 3.3%, or just 0.1 point above average. The Federal Reserve and other central banks consider 2% to be the optimal annual inflation rate because this keeps price increases low while guarding against the risk of deflation, which can be very harmful to economies.

DocumentationHistorical Inflation Recent Inflation

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Living Standards

U.S. Senator Mark Kelly (D–AZ) claims that “people can’t afford their lives right now, and Trump keeps making it worse.”

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IN FACT, inflation during Trump’s second term is about the same as the historical average, and the broadest inflation-adjusted measure of Americans’ material resources is currently higher than ever. Here are the specifics:

Since 1929, the average annual U.S. inflation rate has been 3.2%.
Similarly, the average annual inflation rate during Trump’s second term with Republicans controlling both the House and Senate has been 3.3%, or just 0.1 point above the historical average.
In comparison, the average annual inflation rate during Biden’s presidency while Democrats controlled the House and Senate was 7.2%, or 4.0 points above average.
The federal government has more than 17 different measures of income/material resources with varying trends, lag times, and covered timeframes.
The most comprehensive measure of income/material resources is personal consumption of goods and services, and the federal government has data on this measure extending from 1947 up through the third quarter of 2026.
Adjusted for inflation, average consumption per U.S. resident has grown in every quarter of Trump’s second term and is now $49,401, which is higher than every prior quarter of U.S. history.
Likewise, annual data on inflation-adjusted median household cash income, which excludes capital gains and noncash benefits like food stamps and employer-provided health insurance, grew during the first year of Trump’s second term from $85,210 to $87,460, which is higher than ever recorded in U.S. history.
Beyond the actions of current public officeholders, many other factors impact economic conditions, such as legislation passed by previous congresses and presidents, economic cycles, terrorist attacks, pandemics, natural disasters, and the actions of foreign governments.

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