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Lifetime Risk of Murder

At the current U.S. murder rate, what is the average lifetime risk of being murdered?

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If the U.S. murder rate remains at the current level, one in every 200 people in the nation will ultimately be murdered. This fact is so shocking that some people have refused to believe it, but the methodology to compute it was developed by a licensed actuary, double-checked by a Ph.D. mathematician, and triple-checked by a Ph.D. biostatistician. Per the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Annual victimization rates alone do not convey the full impact of crime as it affects people. No one would express his or her concern by saying, ‘I am terribly afraid of being mugged between January and December of this year.’ People are worried about the possibility that at some time in their lives they will be robbed or raped or assaulted, or their homes will be burglarized.”




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