California Gerrymandering
Former president Barack Obama claims that “Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election,” and the “whole nation is counting” on California to redistrict and put “our elections back on a level playing field.”
IN FACT, the Texas redistricting just put national elections on a level playing field, and California’s plan would tilt it again in favor of Democrats. Here are the specifics:
- 83% of California’s current U.S. House seats are held by Democrats, while 58% of the state voted for Kamala Harris, a 25-point gap.
- 66% of Texas’ current U.S. House seats are held by Republicans, while 56% of the state voted for Trump, a 10-point gap that is 15 points lower than California’s.
- 92% of California’s seats will likely be held by Democrats if the ballot measure passes, raising California’s gap to 34 points.
- 79% of Texas’ seats will likely be held by Republicans under the recent redistricting, raising Texas’s gap to 23 points, which is 11 points lower than California’s likely gap.
- Under the Texas redistrict, the Republican-favoring gap is still lower than the current Democrat-favoring gaps in California, Illinois, and Massachusetts.
- In the 2024 elections, Democrats won 49.4% of U.S. House seats while receiving 47.8% of the votes for U.S. House members, a 1.6 point advantage, which equates to an additional 7 House seats.
- In the 2024 elections, Republicans won 50.6% of U.S. House seats while receiving 50.6% of the votes for U.S. House members, a 0.0 point advantage.
The U.S. House of Representatives is called the “People’s House” and is supposed to be “especially responsive to popular will.” James Madison, the Father of the Constitution, wrote that the House “should have an immediate dependence on, and an intimate sympathy with, the people.”
